Every time a new product is released or updated by Google you’ll hear over-exaggerated claims from people on the negative impact they’ll have on SEO, with some even predicting its death. However history has shown that whenever changes are rolled out from Google, the impact is far from catastrophic.

It’s been around a month since Google Instant was rolled out and those ‘SEO is irrelevant’ claims have yet to be proved right and are unlikely to anytime soon.

When it came to the big update earlier this year by Google, Caffeine, more pages were indexed than ever before and in a much faster fashion.  This provides more opportunities to increase your position in the Search Engine Results Pages, a positive for people in SEO.

Before that, when Universal Search was rolled out, the impact was that you had more opportunity to rank for your keywords with Google pulling in data from other verticals, so you could rank for the keyword ‘Toshiba Laptop’ as well as a video about it.  Again, a positive for people in SEO.

As Google evolves to improve the user-experience, SEO won’t die but will need to evolve. Those following Best Practice SEO methods and creating compelling content and building authority to it have nothing to fear when new products are released or updates happen. But it’s the way you monitor what you are doing and refine that work where necessary as SEO evolves that will enable you to spot opportunities to produce greater results and add finesse to your work.

Here lies the difference between good and great SEO and any person or agency worth their salt will constantly be monitoring what works and what doesn’t, refining where necessary. For example we know building contextual links are important, but could building too many become harmful if they outweigh other inbound links and create an unnatural looking link profile?
We’ve seen our clients rankings improve of late by removing links, so there is a balance between branded, URL and contextual links, thereby creating a natural link profile that search engines want to see and are increasingly putting more weight towards.

When it comes to creating content, with Caffeine making Google a much fresher and faster index of the web, the need to constantly create topical and relevant content on your site is now more apparent than ever, and can increase the opportunities to rank.

While the basic principles of SEO still stand, it’s important to be able to take a step back and look at what impact your work is having on results, what trends develop in your market and what the search engines view as important in order to produce the best results and ensure that when the likes of Google evolve, your SEO does too.

The view from our Managing Partner in New York…

Google Instant does something that Eric, Sergey and Larry have promised from Google’s beginning – make search more intuitive to the point where it can anticipate your search.  Now, with results coming in real time as you type, the user is met with quicker responses to their queries.  Google’s initial claim is that it will shave 2 to 5 seconds per search as a result of the page, providing answers to consumers’ queries that much faster than before.  If search is effective largely because it presents an answer at the exact moment you’re seeking information, Google Instant is the next generation of that promise.

Why the change?

But is that why Google is doing it?  Regardless of Google’s claims, I don’t believe that users were demanding time and productivity savings.  If anything, it could be argued that Google Instant’s functionality could slow down the experience, especially on non-broadband computers.  While Google says they have introduced Instant as a way to get even closer to that stated goal of anticipating a user’s needs, I’m curious if that’s their prime motivation.

What will Google Instant mean?

For advertisers, one consequence of instantly providing users with results as they type means that it becomes extremely important to optimize campaigns against the terms they might be typing in first.  To put it simply, advertisers should now focus on having strong exposure on general, head keywords instead of a mix of head, mid, and long tail keywords.  If you have first position in either Organic or Paid rankings for the broadest possible terms (i.e., “Moving”, “Jeans”, “Digital Cameras.”) you will now enjoy the benefits of getting presented earlier and more often.  Businesses that have made their living on the long tail will now be presented with increased competition – not just on their exact keywords, but on all the keywords that make up that phrase. The net result is that there will be increase in bidding activity against those broad terms, forcing advertisers to choose between the value of increased potential exposure and clicks versus the higher prices that those clicks will now bear. In short, as an advertiser, do I get ROI by bidding up the chain of commonly trafficked keywords in order to ensure I’m capturing consumers as early as possible?

Questions, questions…

So it’s obvious that these changes will minimize the importance of having a broad and deep long tail keyword list in both paid and organic search.  But it brings up a host of further questions.  Before now, high volume terms might have been considered too broad or expensive to be profitable.  How far back search string do I need to move in order to capture consumer attention?  Will Google grant us access to an API that shows us the highest volume keywords in the proper order and combinations?  Will the potentially higher volume make up for the lack of click throughs, decreased conversions and higher costs?   Or conversely, will conversions actually improve as consumers select pages that best meet their needs?

I also wonder about how there will be changes to the famed “golden triangle” of consumer attention.  Google Instant now forces users to primarily pay attention to the very top of the page and then shift their attention downwards.  I’m curious if the ad positions on the right hand side will see decreased performance due to the new presentation dynamic.  This leads to even more attention being placed on the top two or three results – the most costly real estate on the page.

The net result

Google says the net result of Instant is ostensibly about the consumer experience.  But the real reason why Google made such a significant change is that it puts the emphasis on the types of keywords that cost the most money and are searched against most often.  While Google Instant might anticipate my search needs, it doesn’t take an algorithm to anticipate higher profits for Google as a result.

Mark Schwartz
Managing Partner, Steak U.S.

Yesterday I posted a FAQ on Google Instant and discussed if consumers will hate it.

Today I’m going to look at what this might mean for campaigns; the reality is nobody will know for sure until they have gathered data over a decent period of time, roll-out has finished to eligible computers – and consumers have got used to the feature.

US and UK Rollout – A Big Difference

Below are my thoughts from a UK point of view – Steak NYC will be posting their thoughts shortly, too. There is already an important US to UK difference – in the UK, you have to be logged in to a Google Account for Instant to work; in the US, all consumers will see it if their browser etc supports it.

Here are my (UK centric) thoughts:

Impressions on Generic Terms to Rise?

The idea is simple; as consumers start typing, they may be driven by Google’s suggestions to use generics more (either by clicking through, or by reading search results for more than the 3 seconds Google requires to count an impression). I’m not so sure this will happen – see my comments on the long tail below – and I think this would provide consumers less relevant results; a real threat to Google’s loyal user base who love it’s relevancy.

Impressions on Brand Terms to Rise?

I’ve seen a lot of brands appear in results when I start typing – for example “e” brings up eBay results, potentially increasing impressions for this brand term. The same is true of many other letters in the UK and US, and no doubt this spreads to other brands 2 or 3 letters into typing.

If a consumer is starting to type in a non-brand search, and happens to be shown a relevant brand by Instant, then there is the possibility they will go to that site straight away – robbing competitors of the opportunity to compete for them in “normal” non-brand search results.

Brand CPCs to Rise?

This may well happen because of the knock-on affect of more impressions without a click as a result of the above, affecting brands whom are shown for searches where they receive no click – but do have an impression counted against them. However, if the market as a whole experiences this, the competitive affects may be limited – everybody will have the same experience.

Long Tail to Suffer?

I’ve seen a lot of commentary stating that the long tail will suffer, and even that businesses that receive most of their traffic and sales via it will die.

If Google can show search results within a few letters that are relevant compared to the long(er) tail query the consumer was going to type in, then some long tail queries will be diverted onto generic terms of one or two words. However – so far – I’ve rarely had this experience when searching with Instant. No doubt Google will improve the algorithm – it is only day 2, after all.

The more I consider this and talk to colleagues, the less likely this seems, so…

Long Tail To Grow around Suggested Search Strings?

Consumers who are typing in a long tail search know they need to use several words to find what they are looking for – they are taking deliberate action based on past experience. Will they suddenly abandon that behaviour because Google is showing them search results as they type the first few letters? I don’t think many will – if anything, they will “type past” Google’s suggestions to the results they want (i.e. that are relevant) – and maybe add to/edit the long tail search as they see the results it generates. Something they probably would have done anyway, over several distinct searches on the “old” Google.

So long tail might grow – as more consumers notice that the search results change as they type and they think more explicitly about what they are typing, they may be driven to enter more words to refine their search or use the suggested search terms that seem relevant. This would raise long term volumes and, for suggested searches, effectively push consumers onto “predefined” search strings with all the impact increased competition on a term brings for advertisers.

More Keywords To Add?

Google Instant may mean that some consumers start to click through on “half-formed” search terms – e.g. somebody who was going to type in “home insurance” clicking through on a site shown for “home ins”. This may in affect create new keywords to add to campaigns, researched by brainstorming or reviewing analytics/tracking alongside the normal keyword tools. Match type settings will play a part in this coverage, too, for paid search campaigns, and I imagine that Google will ensure broad match covers some of these searches off.

Ranking Even More Important?

As consumers quickly scan results as they type, sites below the fold won’t get any opportunity to catch their eye and draw their click – somebody typing isn’t scrolling. So ranking above the fold will be important in this situation.

Dust-Off Abandoned Generics

A very interesting point Mark in our New York office has made is that brands may need to look at increasing exposure on generic (aka head) terms to ensure they are ranked well for the first term consumers will see results for as they type; so there could well be increased competition for generic, one-word terms. It may be worth re-considering generics previously removed from keyword lists because of high CPCs/competition across paid/ natural search…

Conclusion

I don’t think a fundamental shift to generic terms will occur; I’m increasingly thinking that consumers will start to click through from longer search strings, either by clicking on a search suggestion or typing more words in; if anything Instant will prompt them to improve the way they search.

However, the jury is still out and I know colleagues here at Steak and elsewhere in the industry have different opinions…

So I could be wrong – for all the technology, commentary and gut instinct we all collectively have, consumers can be notoriously unpredictable and the ultimate test will only be time – and data. I can see a long Excel session coming on…

UPDATE:

Our sister agency Minute Steak have also been blogging about Google Instant during it’s beta testing and also their thoughts on the launch and its implications.

This blog post is more of a FAQ on Google’s new feature Instant Search; I’ll be following up with my take on what this might mean for Google, search marketers, clients – and the group everybody seems to be forgetting in the industry press – consumers.

Q: What is Google Instant?

This is a new feature on Google’s interface, only available on the most recent version of web browsers (see below). The Google Adwords FAQ is here.

When a consumer searches, GI will change search results as you type, as well as changing the suggested searches (which already happen). These are based on past consumer search queries, your location and past searches (i.e. personalization).

During the process, Google uses an algorithm to predict what a user means and shows results accordingly – e.g. typing “holid” may mean results for “holidays” appear – see image 1 attached.

An example:

An example of Google UK Instant Search results for "Florida holid"

Q: Why have Google launched this?

Google’s stated reasons:

- faster searches
- helps guide users to searches
- users see results without clicking a button / hitting return and can refine their query as they type based on the results

I also believe this is part of their ongoing efforts to step-up to competing with Bing, whom are focused on interface developments to aid consumers and gain marketshare.

Q: Which Browsers?

This will only work on the latest browser versions in the US, UK, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and Russia: Chrome v5/6, Firefox v3, Safari v5 for Mac and Internet Explorer v8.

If you used Google over the last few days and saw different “swirling” logos, then your browser is compatible.

You can enable it here if not seeing it: http://www.google.com/webhp?sclient=psy

Q: When doesn’t it work?

It won’t work on:

• older browsers
• toolbars
• the address bar
• browser search boxes
• iGoogle
• if you disabled Google autocomplete
• if you disable it via the drop down to the right of the search box marked “Instant”
• if use the SSL version of Google search

Many consumers use the first three without thinking; this will limit impact for the initial search in a session – but not once on Google itself. Google may add this to toolbars etc in future, of course.

Q: What are UK Browser Market Shares?

To give context to whom will see this:

• IE8 – 32%
• FireFox 3.x – 21%
• Chrome 5/6 – 2%
• Safari 5 – 0.19%

= 55.19% of the UK will potentially see this. Source: Statcounter.com

It’s worth noting many corporates use older browsers that don’t support this – including most of the UK Government, many utilities firms and finance companies….so consumers will be getting one experience, and another at work in some cases.

I’ll explain how I think this will affect search and consumers in a follow up post shortly.